Wall Street Slumps Real Estate Cools Off

 The rise in interest rates are beginning to show the economy is slowing down.  Stocks are the most liquid of assets. Stocks and bonds are more immediate in price changes. Real Estate is slower in reaction.  Real Estate must be watched to gather trends.

I personally look at the MLS Daily Summary.  It lists all the new listings, pending sales, sales, with drawn, cancelled, expired, sold, and most important back on the market.

The MLS Listing indicates a sellers market as home prices stay relatively firm. Sales occur at over list in most of our markets.  Price cuts are beginning to mount.  We are still in the active season in the Real Estate market.  Once we get into June and the sales of April and May close escrow, we will see if a slow down in price or listings occur.  It is my observation that the listings are very strong now, I doubt they will slow down.  Why, too much money has been placed in remodeling and updating by contractor, speculators and home owners to want or can pull homes off the market.

The Thursday, May 19, 2022, Wall Street journal front page right column had The Stock Market Slump first and the Cool off in home prices next. 

Sooner or later the media will come about to see the impact of how higher interest rates will create asset weakness.

The worrisome part of this slow down is in the Subprime Borrowers.  They are the first line of first home buyers that are seeing their loan commitment drop and their credit card balances increase due to higher interest rates.

Two more interest rate increase are for certain.  It is certain that all forms of debt will see interest rates increase.  Along with the debt increase the interest paid on intermediate to short term US Government Bonds will increase.  It will be hard to not accept a 5-year US Treasury Bond at 5% or 5.5% versus a buy the bounce in a FAANG stock or Nvida, which so many clients and real estate agents ask my opinion of.

How does a buyer or seller operate in this market?

For the buyer, place offers in 10% under the list, make the offer contingent on financing and appraisal. If the appraisal comes in below list tell your agent to see of the seller will take a modification of purchase price to the appraisal.  Get ready for rejections.  Sooner or later you will get an acceptance.  In this manner your interest rate rise are partially being borne by the seller in a lower sales price.

If it is a MUST BUY, try talking to Homeward or DIVVY to buy the home for cash and allow you buy it back with your financing.  i never used them, but found them in an article on Startups.

For the seller; get your agent to get a CMA, comparative market analysis, no more than 3 months and the shortest being the most acceptable.  Place the list 10% under the CMA. Do not look to sell at the high price.  The seller wins in higher yield on money market accounts to store their proceeds in, and lower prices for the move to a new home.

Remember this, buyers and sellers get hurt in a rising interest rate market.  Waiting hurts both!  A recession in a inflationary market is called STAGFLATION.  It happened in the 70's.  It is financially and emotionally painful!  

Bear markets in stock will historically last 2 years.  That would make the end after or at the next presidential election or the congressional election in November 2022.  Inflation is the worst to survive, 27 months on average.

Follow this graph to chart the home market.

Gary McKae

The End of Free Money

Wake up call has been blown to all quarters.  Interest rates are rising and the era of Free Money has ended.  The days of the stock market strategy of "Buy the Dips" and "it always will come back" are DEAD! The FAANG stocks are all in Bear Markets and every, or at least every, 2022 IPO is under water.  Sooner or later it returns to the 1970"s inflation and rising interest rates.

The FED has made the big change of ending the "FED PUT" to being the furnace that burns investors in aggressive growth strategies.

Where does that leave real estate?  A falling stock market and disenchantment with investing during the 70's led those left with cash using real estate as an investment alternative.  The money from the stock portfolio goes into a newer or bigger home, remodeling the existing home, or buying investment properties.  

The future does not change much from the past.  Don't expect it to.  As Yogi Berra once said "it's deja vu all over again".

Investors turn to real estate, but what happens to all those buyers?  Now we go to Econ 101, the Supply Demand Curve....remember that one?

We are in a present or once past situation in which there were more buyers that sellers.  A majority of buyers had , or have, a "Commitment Letter" from a Bank or Lender.  The past ones were good for 90 days and most of the past ones from the beginning of the year were at 2.75%, or at the onset of 2022 were at 3.13%.  When the FED began raising interest rates the new letters jumped!  2.75% from 2021 expired and jumped to 4.75%, then letters went o 5%, then to 5.25 and now at 5.4%, each jump cut a group of buyers out of the supply demand curve.  The lowest level in the affordability buyers are cut out.  They have either to make up the difference with a larger down payment or look elsewhere in affordable areas.  East to Sacramento, Modesto, or south to Gilroy are the new destinations, or out of the State of California.  The remaining buyers will have, or had,  their commitment letters cut.  The $2 million down to $1.6 million and downward for the rest.  As the buyer level is adjusted the overall market should see price adjustments too.  A recent buyer in Castro Valley bought a 3/2, fully remodeled and landscaped for $1.171 million, listed a $1.2 million and appraised $1.21 million.

The high end of the buyers will not worry of commitment letters, they pay cash.  But with portfolios down 20% or more, there is a tendency to feel a bit poorer.  IPO's will stop, but cash draws for investments in startups will not stop. Cash levels will increase, stock portfolios will be liquidated and the desire to pay up for Atherton. Los Altos, Los Altos Hills will begin to stop.

When the pressure begins from bottom to top the home prices will stop the dramatic increases.  Prices will stop increasing, some listing will see price cuts and some offers will be below list.  

This too will see a return to Bank Foreclosures.  Where will they come from? Where the potential will lie is in the Fix and Flippers in the "Starter Home" market.  It seems that East Palo Alto has been a haven for the Fix and Flip group.  Once these homes have been completed the bank loans become due and payable.  The Flipper's all have a forced sale or find the property in the hands of lenders.  It this a certainty?  No, but a possibility once the new loan commitments cut deeply into the qualifications of buyers.

Inflation does not stop without pressure from interest rate increases or supply increases to dampen prices.  At 8.5% annual inflation it appears we will have inflation with us for awhile.  Cheap goods from Asia have stopped either by lock downs from Virus or Tariffs.  The replacement require new plant in the US.  There will be little doubt in my mind that prices will move higher for those goods.  Oil is shipped to Europe; along with Natural Gas where the price paid is higher than the US.  Drilling has not increased as the Biden Administration has put policy changes that inhibited drilling and exploration.  So We pay the price.  Go electric is difficult as the Grid System can barely cover present needs without the expansion of electric vehicles.

The Fed may not increase 3/4% at the next move.  The estimate is for 1/2% increase in back to back FED meetings.  That could take mortgage rates on 30-year's to 6.4% from the present 5.4%.  More reason for believing that buyers will be reduced.  With the reduction of buyers, listing prices should see some caution in expecting over bids or quick sales.

There is a benefit for those who buy and look for an appraisal.  The appraisals are based upon the past 3 months.  The last three months have sales higher than the purchase price?  If so, good that means the buyer will not worry about paying more in a down payment.  

I still recommend buyers do not hesitate when they find a home they like.  Buy it!  Don't worry about any near term market weakness.  There is never a Bell to Ring when a bottom occurs.  As the buyer pays their mortgage the equity value increases with each interest and principal payment.  That is call amortization.  That is why real estate is a long term asset.  When the kids are in college or getting married the mortgage is paid off.  Don't live off of equity, no HELOC loans.  Pay off the mortgage, remodel and keep the home current.  You will be rewarded in the end!

Stock Market Collapses, Interest rise and Mortgage Commitments Fall!

 Real Estate keeps flying off the shelves like at a discount market with bonus points.  You don't need to give away Green Stamps to sell in this real estate market.  California, our area especially, has the most $1 million home sales in America.  Even lowly Dead Wood City (Redwood City) has gone into the top with homes selling at $2000 per square foot.  Does this end or do we still buy.

First of all, you are not buying Meta or any one of the other FAANG stocks.   You are buying a home to live in.

I finished speaking a friend who I have known for over 40 + years and lives and works in Lake Tahoe.  We spoke about housing prices and interest rates.  He remembered when he bought his home in Zephyr Cove and paying 12.5% mortgage rate, and felt he had a deal.  I recalled that we bought some few months before his purchase in Cow Hollow San Francisco and paid 14.5% for our mortgage.  We too felt we had a deal and loved our 1904 Edwardian.  So what's the difference between double digit interest rates and the last increase?

I recalled how a client called and told me he had his commitment letter cut 30%!  The mortgage rate quoted for the commitment went to 4.75% from 2.75%.  NOW WHAT?  Well, you either come up with the difference in down payment to stay at the same home price or cut back and look elsewhere where you can comply to the loan commitment.....BUT..."that's a 30% increase in my down payment!  I'm looking at a 50% down not 20% down."  It is what it is!  Rates are still a bargain.  They will not decline!  The FED has already said that on May 4th there will be a 1/2% increase and two more to follow.  That means that today's mortgage market in the Sunday paper was 5.42% for a 30-year mortgage. That will take it to 6.92%, my approximate guess to a 30-year mortgage.

With inflation at 7-8% annually that still means mortgage rates will be under inflation and a great deal!

So buyers need to look at the economics and whether they wish to live an a specific area, or will another area make do?

My friend of over 40 years has told me how buying on Lake Tahoe and the communities surrounding it are in a construction boom!  He just bought a 6000+SF home with 5+ bedrooms and baths on 2.5 acres for $2.4 million.  A GREAT DEAL, COMPARED TO REDWOOD CITY 1350 SF HOMES AT $2.4 MILLION.  Yeah he said.  "They are your people.  They are coming up to Tahoe and buying and working remotely.  No taxes, bigger homes, cheaper homes and new construction. What a Deal!"  

Now where does that leave us in our real estate market?  Two types of real estate transactions.  For those who have owned for sometime, retired, semi-retired or just ready to move there are numerous options, sell and look for fresher grounds.  To those looking to get that home in Atherton and Woodside the options are just one BUY!

Stock options need to be re-priced, portfolio's are down.  Hopefully there are large cash reserves.  Cash is King in this market.  All Cash buyers will win, always!

Even though the stock market is down, and in my opinion it is never too late to raise cash!  Real Estate will always be the best asset to hold.  It is your Real Estate!

Are there any bad omens out there?  Certainly, interest rates are one.  Fix and Flippers are another.  

No matter how you look at it, there are people who have limited budgets and do not have have options and a large stock portfolio.  They need to find a home with good schools for their children and still be in proximity to health and shopping and work, if necessary.  

In my opinion, communities like Redwood City have been discovered.  Redwood City has fairly good schools, great in some areas and not so great in others.  Private schools in the City and some nearby.  Shopping is near and the health care is excellent from Palo Alto Medical to Stanford, as examples.  The neighborhoods are safe with neighbors who look after one another.  

Fremont, El Dorado Hills, Granite Bay and Sacramento area have all been discovered and continue to grow in population and home prices.

I am still of the opinion that it is a buy in real estate no matter where you look. Interest rates lower than inflation put the benefits to the buyer and the borrower.  Homes have been fixed up by the Fixer Flipper market, which takes the onus off the buyer for updating a new purchase.  That in itself is worth the purchase.

Bad omen to the potential problems.  Fix and Flippers have dominated the first time buyer market.  That market is impacted by the rise in mortgage rates.  That buyer may just ship east across the bay to find a less expensive and a more affordable home.  If that begins to create a trend, which I take is happening now, it will put pressure on the Fix and Flipper as their loan is based upon completion and sale.  That either occurs in a market sale by the investor/contractor or the bank takes on and sells at cost.  That could lead to a softness in our market at least for an interim factor.  Is it occurring?  Well, so far I only know one one situation of an upscale property in the Sacramento area that a colleague was given an REO to sell.  So far, the only indication locally has been my broker training agents in the terms and conditions of listing of bank owned real estate. 

One thing I do know is, you will not see it in the local news until it is almost over.  News needs adds and adds are realtors, banks and builders.  They don't make money out of anything other than advertising!

When I look at the daily new listings, sold, pending I am beginning to see more listings than pending and sold.  There are starts in price cuts too.  Nothing to tell me we are not out of the "sellers market".  So feel safe,  Buyers should buy now as those rates have two more 1/2% increases forthcoming. For sellers, I do not see any worry of severe price cuts. Just don't get greedy and too optimistic over what you THINK your house is worth.  Let the market tell you.

The best place to look in this market for value is the VACANT LAND MARKET!  Motely Fool had a recent article which I will add here....

KEY POINTS

• The right plot of vacant land can hold nearly limitless potential. 
• A large plot of land comes with more options, but a smaller plot can be a great investment, too.
• The current housing market is making land investing even more appealing.

When you think of real estate investing, you probably think primarily of various types of residential or commercial buildings. And it's true that from single-family homes and apartment buildings to retail, office space, and warehouses, most of the real estate investing we discuss here at The Motley Fool involves buildings of one type or another.

But with all its potential and possibilities, vacant land can be a very exciting investment. Let's take a look at a few options when investing in vacant land, as well as some pros, cons, and considerations.

Thinking big

If you can find a reasonably good deal on a large plot of land in the right area, it could be worth buying and holding on to. It's likely to appreciate in value over time as demand grows, and there are several ways you could make money off of it in the meantime.

Possibilities to explore, depending on the characteristics of the parcel and its location, include selling the mineral rights, setting the property up as a hunting lease, or even leasing it out as farmland. You could also think long term by planting a portion of the land in timber while still making an income through one of the aforementioned methods. (Carbon Credits a new income source in Redwoods)

From 2020 to 2021, the value of farmland, cropland, and pastureland in the U.S. increased around 7%. That's a huge increase for a one-year period. 

Current developments in the housing market are also a huge plus for landowners. After a significant dip, homebuilding is back in a big way. New home construction is up 22% over this time last year, making the prospect of starting a housing development well worth looking into if you think you've found the right land for that type of project.

Thinking small

But what if you don't have hundreds of thousands of dollars to invest in a huge parcel of land? In that case, you may want to simply take it one lot at the time -- one residential lot, that is. If you can buy an undeveloped, or "raw," lot in a new or desirable residential area and make some improvements to the land, you may be able to sell it at a considerable profit to someone looking to build their dream home. Think of this as the land version of house flipping.

These improvements could include clearing a site on the land where a home could eventually be built and creating easy access to that area, if needed. This could be an effective way to take advantage of the homebuilding boom without having to make a huge up-front investment, perhaps especially in a growing suburb. And this way, you can take it one piece at a time.

Should you consider vacant land?

If you've been investing in real estate primarily in the form of homes or commercial property, vacant land can feel like an entirely different ball game. But the most important difference is that you'll need to ensure any land you're interested in will be suitable for your intended purpose (or purposes) before pulling the trigger. This could include making sure most of the land is high and dry and that it isn't subject to any zoning restrictions that could get in the way of your plans.

The vast potential of vacant land is a big part of its appeal. So is its simplicity, in that you don't have to do anything but hold it and wait for it to appreciate, if that's your preference. But the No. 1 reason vacant land is often a safe investment is a bit of a cliché, and for good reason: They simply aren't making it anymore.

GARY MCKAE VACANT LAND LISTINGS:

18.1 ACRES MIDDLETON TRACT LA HONDA APPROX 70% OLD GROWTH REDWOODS, $1.4 MILLION

3.1 ACRES MIDDLETON TRACT $449,000

3 ACRES MIDDLETON TRACT $349,000

Gary McKae

Recession, Inverted Yield Curve and real estate continues to be strong

 There have been 17 Inflation Periods since the 1970's when interest rates were increased by the FED. to combat inflation  All but THREE led to a Recession.  From a statistical and probabilities standpoint the bet is on RECESSION!

That is a tough pill to swallow as we are just getting out of the Pandemic era, still facing continued reinfection by various variants of Covid.

The FED is ramping up rate increases and the reduction of their $9 T bond portfolio.  The first to go in the bond portfolio is the MBS, mortgage backed securities, sector.  There are ample buyers in the banks.  It appears their portfolio composition are light in this sector.  

At a present mortgage rate of 4.75% and the historic average maturity of a mortgage in the MBS portfolio is 7-10 years.  To a bank, as an investor, 4.75% is far better than the 2.8% on present 10-year T-Bonds.  That indicates that there will be a faster redemption within the bond portfolio.  Further indicating that banks believe that home sales will increase from the present level.  Homes will sell, mortgages will be paid off and the average age of the MBS will decline.  This will allow the banks to re-invest at higher interest rates.

Going onto home sales, we are still seeing less homes for sale than demand requires.  When will that end?  That will go to the point of loan commitment letters.  Generally speaking they are good for 90 days.  At the end a new letter and a new rate is committed upon.  At present the rates expiring are in the upper 2% level.   "What to do"?  Buy a house fast, forget about if the color of the interior is not to the liking of the buyer, the kitchen is old, the floors need finishing.  All can be done with out the cost of increased loan payments based upon a present commitment of 4.75%, and very possibly over 5% when the FED increases rates in May.  The belief is the rate increase will be 1/2%.

On a monthly basis, commitments will drop off and new ones will be created.  With those increases in rates adjustments of buyers must be recognized.  The alternatives are 1. buy a smaller and less expensive home, 2. offer a price that is below list but equal to affordability,  3. make offer contingent upon appraisal and financing, 4. wait for home prices to drop, 5. MOVE to a more affordable area.

The last two are the least likely and acceptable to home buyers.   

Silicon Valley is unique to the rest of the country.  We have a wealth of Venture Capital firms looking and willing to invest in new businesses.  We have a wealth in well trained and highly educated workers.  What we do lack is a Service Industry who can afford to live here!  This is the real challenge of the Venture Capital Business.  How to develop a replacement to clerks, cooks and waiters.  Then there are the Fire and Police, Teachers, Health Care workers who are stuck here and we can't replace.

Inflation is 8% on an annual basis.  Where does it go from here?  Historically it does not stop on a line in the sand.  Supply must increase or demand decrease.  That seems difficult as it means investment by farmers, miners and oil companies and borrowing when interest rates are increasing.  Supply does not turn on like a faucet.  Drought and rain can cause issues for crops.  Finding oil and gas takes time.  Processing all of the above take time.  While time is being taken interest rates keep rising until.  The economy CHOKES!

Where does this process affect home prices?  That is a BIG Question.  In the 70's we had Stagflation.  A stagnant economy and inflation.  Interest rates were increased by the FED.  Bond prices declined.  The stock market declined too!  The irony of the 70's was residential housing was active and prices rose.  People did have money and jobs.  They did not invest in stocks and bonds to lose their investment.  They bought a home!  Yes there were foreclosures as some lost jobs.  The foreclosures sold at lower prices and there was always an eager buyer for a willing seller.   Professional traders and investors always made money in their investments.  It was the average "American" who stopped buying mutual funds and long term bonds that went to real estate.

Slowly we should see a real estate "sellers market" turn into an "balanced market".  The Month of March Report on Housing in the Bay Area is out.  Santa Clara County Luxury Homes declined for the second month in a row.  The average list price of $5,493,329 was down 3.69% from the proceeding month.  In San Mateo County, it too declined the second month in a row, the average list of $10,367,196 was down 3.69% from the preceding month.  The average sale of $7,155,493 is down 1.12% for the preceding month.  Whereas, single family homes continued to increase in both list price and sale price with shorter days on the market.  This further indicates to me the upper end of the market who do not buy with a mortgage sense a slow down.  Those who buy with a mortgage are buying before their commitment letter expires.

It all stops when the FED stops. Let's hope we have Putin solved by then and supply returns to the market.

Stagflation?

 From what I read and listen to on Podcasts, You Tube and the like; there is a majority of opinion of a CRASH.  A CRASH is expected, it is not a Black Swan.  What makes a Black Swan is the unexpected happens.  In the case of a Crash not occurring but a revival and continued economic growth, that unexpected is called a White Swan.  A good event that is prosperous.  Instead of a Crash we have a continued upward movement in the economy.  The Silver lining that is not being considered is the expansion is wages or earnings.  The increase in earnings can offset the inflationary pressures.  Higher oil prices do not necessarily mean it will affect all.  Cars are more economical,  more cars are EV or a combination thereof than in the past.  People have public transportation and car pools.  All are coming back to work in offices and the cities as the Pandemic is gone and the variants are more a severe cold.  

The commodity prices of Wheat, Corn, Soybeans and meat products which are created from the grains will go up.  With the increase in prices farmers and drilling companies will created more supply.  While the pressures will be near term the adjustment process is a potential political disaster for the Democrats in November  The talk of "green" will soon go on the back burner as the need for natural gas and oil take over to offset the Russian embargo on oil and the Ukraine situations.  The embargoes will stay!  When Putin goes things will change but up until then we live in the present world.

The Balance of payments will turn to a positive as America sells more oil and natural gas to the world.  America buys its oil from Canada and that makes the Trans-Canada pipeline a must.  Sell our oil and buy cheaper Canadian Oil is a great Arbitrage.  Canadian Oil is a heavier oil and our refiners are heavy oil refineries.  The new Frack Oil is a lighter oil and better to sell than convert our refineries.  That means a stronger dollar.

Basic Industries will be in revival.  Basic Industries as a group have lagged in the past Bull Market in stocks.  The stock portfolio asset mix will change and the FAANG stocks will change in dominance.  That then brings up a question for Silicon Valley.  Silicon Valley has grown on the growth stocks and FAANG stock dominance.  Will we see prices weaken or stabilize?  That will need to be answered in the Baby Boomers and their willingness to sell.  They are getting into their 70's and age does have its issues.  The wealth of most of them is in their homes.  When they need medical help or must need 24/7 care the funds must come from savings and or the sale of their homes.  I will venture to say we will see more inventory as rates increase and Silicon Valley slows down.

The Federal Reserve (FED) raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 by 1/4%, not the 1/2% as expected.  FED chairman Powell said 7 more to come.  10-year Treasury bonds are at 2.1%+.  Mortgage rates are at 4%+.  The increase of seven 1/4% rate increases will take the 10-year to 4% and mortgage rates to 6%.  Will that stop buyers?  Now that, to me, puts to question the increase in wages argument.  Wages increase earnings decrease is simple business accounting.  Earnings decrease, stock prices decrease, less stock buy backs and less dividend increases.  That seems more recessionary.  It is highly improbable to me, that wages will increase equally or more than inflationary increases.  That then puts pressure on buyer affordability and prices to become competitive.  In the area of consumer products there is always technological advances to create savings.  A house is built as it stands, the only give up is in price to the buyer.

The answer to the economic direction of our country will come in November when the House and Senate elections occur.  A shift to GOP will tell Mr Biden his days are limited.  Will Biden become more forceful with Putin?  That will also tell us more about the physiological being of Americans and Silicon Valley.  If this war gets nasty.  The outlook for higher rates and recession may be out of the question.  I do not think Putin will back down.  He is too much a KGB Colonel in mind set to Back Down.  I am reminded of a Colonel who taught Military History in college.  "Offer a Russian a finger nail, they will take your arm".  Putin got his finger nail in Crimea, Syria, and now it is time for the arm.  Will Mr. Biden be up to the challenge of WWIII?  I doubt Putin is insane, but the threat of nuclear is always a tough bluff to call.  If it happens he losses everything. Is he mentally disturbed; if so, a bullet will solve that.  His loyal backers do not want to loose everything and go back to the Soviet Days.

Locally we are in a market of transition.  The older 50's houses are either updated or demolished and new up-to-date homes replace them. Therein lies a fallacy of the increase in home prices.  Homes are bought a year ago and fixed and flipped by Professionals.  The increase is not an increase in appreciation, but a manufactured increase.  I cannot speak for the rest of the country, but from my experience locally.  How long will this continue?  It will continue until buyers stop buying based on economics.  The economics have not changed to date.  So, if you are a buyer, buy now. If you are considering selling do the same as where ever you go prices will increase, accordingly.

Comments of Gary McKae not eXp Realty of California

Ukraine, Inflation and Stock market volatility on Home Prices

 It is hard for me to believe that the Stock Market's volatility and the upward pressure on inflation from the Ukrainian situation will not affect home prices.

Saturday, March 5th weekend Wall Street Journal had some sobering comments on source of funds that support our housing market.  $1.17 billion in Initial Public Offerings have been pulled from market issuance in February.  IPO's, as they are referred to, have been a source of funds that have fueled our real estate market all through the  stock "Bull Market".  Now the stock market is officially in a "Bear Market" there is a question on how much exuberance will continue to carry over into buying frenzy.  I still do not believe that our real estate market is on the verge or even near the end.  At most, the market should settle down to an even buyer and seller situation of equal representation.  I have already seen so in some recent price cuts.  $110 million listing in Woodside has been cut $26 million in one month time!  It seems rather soon, to me, that would have occurred without some stimulus externally.

As I look at the overall real estate market in the 5 county area, there is a clear sign that listings have increased substantially, in my opinion, and sales have come down to list prices.  

A recent report shows that the Luxury high end side of the market a disturbing indicator.  In Santa Clara County the average list price of a Luxury Home has declined in the past 30 days as of February 25, 2022 by 11.95% and average sale price decline of 5.11%.  In San Mateo County the average list price is down 12.8% and average sale price is down 20.61%.  

When I look at that same report, counties outside of our area it gives me a good indication of where buyers are going to.  In Alameda County Luxury listing prices were up 2.6% and sale prices up 6%.  Contra Costa County high end Luxury listing prices are up 6.9% and sale prices are up 14.66%.  Monterey is different, Luxury listing prices are down 10.89% with sales not available.  Santa Cruz County the Luxury high end listing prices are down 24.29% and sale prices are up 2.9%.

On a daily basis I look at the MLS survey of our Silicon Valley Communities and see an over weighting of new listings to pending and sold properties..  We are now into the best season of home sales. The results going forward will be a good indication of where prices are going.  Listing are well outdistancing pending sales and sold properties to date.

Inflation has been taken over by the Ukrainian conflict with oil prices at a new high, taking along with it gasoline prices.  Foodstuff are dramatically increasing as Ukraine is a major wheat producer.  Future prices of wheat are at a new high taking with it corn and soybeans.  Those foodstuffs are what make meat prices go higher as the cost of feeding livestock increases.

The most difficult situation is interest rates and what affect raising interest rates will have upon inflation now after Ukraine.  From my observation the increase in commodities is a supply/demand situation instigated by fear and greed.  I cannot see how an increase in interest rates will affect the supply of wheat, corn and soybeans when a major world supplier is taken out of the supply equation.  Do not fail to realize that oil is a  major component in the production of foodstuffs.

Then to, I find it hard to believe that an issuance of a state ruling to expand property limitations to allow multiple family units will solve the housing issue.  As I see it, it is the cost of housing, not the supply, is the real issue.  Once the income factor is addressed the ability to buy homes is partially addressed.  Then the supply of houses can be a useful solution,

Just my opinion, not eXp's opinion.

Interest Rates, Inflation & Real Estate

" Breaking Up is Hard To Do", a 60's, or so, song from Neil Sadaka is a song for our era.  Just like our first love, things were going so smooth and then BANG.  What happened, everything was going so well?  Interest rates were declining, stocks were alway going up and every dip we bought more, home values kept moving up, we made unbelievable money with a thing called Crypto.  Then all of a sudden we had Covid, things came back and went higher, people shifted home searches away to areas were they could work remotely and have a better lifestyle at a lower cost of living.

A buyer prospect backed away from a purchase recently, he lost over a $million in Crypto....he is sick.  The happy smiling guy is gone.  FAANG Stocks are down so much people hate looking at their statement on line.  Yet....home prices keep going up.  Los Altos Hills is up 37% in the month of January and the entry home there is $4+ million.

Yahoo Finance says..."How will the economy and markets handle hikes? Clearly risk assets are vulnerable. One way to view the recent stock market correction is that with the Fed no longer in deep denial, markets have caught on to the idea that inflation is a problem and the Fed is going to do something about it. As the Fed pivot continues-and the bond market prices in more hikes, we could see more volatility," said Bank of America's head of global economics Ethan Harris. 

‌Harris — who is now calling for seven rate increases and only 3.6% GDP growth in 2022 — will be on Yahoo Finance Live this morning. If you own stock, this is a must watch interview.

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"Rates — seven or eight increases — may also shock the economy. And that could possibly even cause a recession," Stifel's long-time CEO Ron Kruszewski told Yahoo Finance Live.  

When I reflect on our situation both domestically and internationally I think about my first decade out of college, the Jimmy Carter Presidency.  Iran took our Embassy, Allies were cautious with us, Nam took some of friends and never gave them back!  Inflation was crazy, gas lines, food prices escalating.  Through it all housing prices were strong.   Why?  I guess if you bought stocks you lost money, if you bought bonds you lost money and if you bought real estate it stayed firm and went up.  Inflation stayed with us for some time until finally it broke with 14% T-Bills.  My first mortgage on a flat in Pacific Heights was 14.5% for a 3 bedroom at $265,000.  My newly wed wife and I spent after work and on weekends cleaning up old door knobs and shining brass.  Sold it in a year for $395,000 and bought a home in Woodside for $425,000 and never looked back.  Real estate did so much better than stock.

Today's inflation is a bit of an enigma.  When I look at the Census reports there is something wrong with the report.  7.5% inflation seems out of reality.  Gas at Costco keeps going up, my wife comes home after shopping and complains about the price of milk and bread.  When I look at the Census reports there is a calculation of 7.5% .  Fuel oil +9.5% for January with 46.5% year over year.  overall energy costs +25% on the year.

Two interest rate increases for 2022 when to 4 then 5 and now to 7 before rate increases with a 1/2% increase among the1/4% increases.  The 10-year T-bond is 2.022%, a big jump after the recent CPI figures.  The 10-year is most important because it sets mortgage rates, credit card rates and most other borrowing rates.4 increases in 2022 could take the 10 year to 3% and mortgage rates to close to 5%

The real estate markets most vulnerable will be the lower end or starter homes.  That market is where budgets are tight.  The next target is the "Fix & Flip" market where margins are tight and lenders quick to pull the trigger if sales are not fast.  A pull back in that market will cause a hesitation across the board.

So far, we have not had a FED rate increase.  The mortgage rate has remained steady and starter homes have maintained value.  That should be enough for buyers to get out and buy before the FED starts increasing interest rates.

Seller, should not be so cocky.  When rates pinch pocket books of buyers in the starter and move up market,  price cuts in listing and sales prices will be expected to cover their budgets.

The biggest challenge in forecasting presently is the workers not being tied to desks and working remotely.  

The next challenge is the return home of manufacturing.  Russia and China are back in the Cold War Syndrome.  Asian work place will find better conditions in Texas, Arizona and Nevada and States of the south east close to ports.  The energy industry will see a come back as oil, and gas will be needed in Europe to supplement the lost Russian gas.

I can foresee a FDR type program to take care of the homeless and unemployed  sleeping in tents and cars.  All tied to massive building programs.  The talk of subdividing Woodside properties will cease and people will be able to afford the higher costs of living.

OPTIMISTIC?  No just following the Playbook of Pericles of Athens, about 450 BC, and FDR.