THE ART OF A DEAL... NO RECESSION FORECASTED?
When Donald Trump first jumped into the political scene, I bought his book The Art of the Deal on my Kindle. I found it interesting reading—even if I had jaded opinions about who Donald Trump was and his real estate background. I go back to it from time to time for a better idea of how the man operates. As I read his exploits, I find him a rather fair fellow compared to some real estate investors and builders I’ve known.
Watching his public actions over the years, it’s clear that his comments are part of a lifelong pattern of deal-making. Unfortunately, his critics and the media seem more focused on attacking him than understanding how he operates. But that’s politics—something I know all too well.
As in most investments, I’ve often said: wait—don’t make knee-jerk decisions based on current events. Long-term results rarely reward short-term reactions.
During the Trump presidency, I advised long-term investors to build cash and reallocate capital into real estate—not back into the stock market. That advice was later validated by a Wall Street Journal article analyzing investor performance from “Liberation Day” (the announcement of tariffs) through the various resolution periods. Investors who panicked and sold lost out.
We’re in an Adjustment Phase
This realignment of capital has historical precedent. We are entering a phase where the U.S. government will exert less influence over economic direction. Agencies like the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) have made strides in reviewing—and eliminating—wasteful spending. A recent 60 Minutes segment revealed how rogue foreign entities have infiltrated government programs, resulting in trillions of U.S. taxpayer dollars lost overseas.
As analysts and media jumped to conclusions based on fragmented data, the markets reacted wildly. But let’s look at some facts:
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As of May 13, 2025, U.S. inflation dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021.
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That figure was below estimates and contradicted fears that tariffs would spark stagflation.
What is Stagflation?
Stagflation combines inflation with economic stagnation. But current forecasts of a recession are declining. In fact, Wall Street banks are now projecting positive growth—not two quarters of contraction, which define a recession.
Investors Crave Stability
Investors prefer steady, predictable growth. This economic backdrop encourages conservative investors to trim risky positions and focus on long-term, income-generating assets.
The Federal Reserve, faced with mixed signals, appears to be holding interest rates steady—“sitting on their hands,” as has often been the case since the 1970s. The Fed rarely leads; it follows. Until there is executive action to reshape its economic philosophy, we’re unlikely to see bold changes.
Meanwhile, real estate investors are positioned to profit.
Why Real Estate Shines Now
The reduced likelihood of a recession is the most promising sign for real estate allocation—especially for Triple Net (NNN) Leases.
In a downturn, businesses may close, leases terminate, and owners are left with expenses and no income. But in a stable economy, NNN tenants pay rent plus property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. That leaves the owner with a true net return.
But Choose Carefully
Not all NNN assets are created equal. Some sectors, such as bank branches and pharmacy locations, are under liquidation pressure due to corporate restructuring. This opens opportunities for investors—but also requires diligence. You don’t need inside corporate intel to recognize a bargain, but you do need solid underwriting.
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