The Data speaks for the market.

From my first class in college in investment banking that I thoroughly enjoyed, Statistic and Probability to my Wharton training in Investment Management Analysis, I have found that data shows the condition and direction of a market.

We went through a shut down from March to May.  The shut down did have a negative effect on sales and house prices.  That result is difficult to use in statistical analysis because that was a controlled market place.  Once we had the release the effects on the housing market have shown the direction in the market with built up buyers coming into the market in a BIG FASHION!

JUNE 2020

Atherton had a 37% decline in sales price and a 22% decline in sales volume.  Woodside had a 8% increase in sales price and a 63% decline in volume.  Portola Valley had a had A 13% INCREASE IN HOME PRICES AND A 436% INCREASE IN SALES VOLUME! Menlo Park followed with a 86% increase in sales price and a 131% increase in sales volume. Palo Alto had a 13% decline in sales price and a 11% increase in volume.  Redwood City had a 2% increase in prices and a 60% increase in volume.

The optimism for real estate is followed with new home purchases remaining high.  New home builders are saying buyers are considering new construction as a safe way to invest not only in their future, but in their well being.

Despite the Spring time slow down from shelter in place the real estate market is still safe and solid.

The transition of renters as seen in rental price declines in places like San Francisco of 20% with a 6-7% vacancy rate.   Similar declines in rental prices has occurred.  Housing units for rent  in Redwood City alone has Zillow posting over 200 "for rent postings" that mainly are dominated by the new construction apartment complexes.  From personal experience sales of previously rental properties are becoming common in Redwood City.  The clue to the declines and occupancy could be "work at home" is  pushing renters to new construction projects in the East Bay and South Bay giving rise to the New construction positive numbers.

This is complicated by the rental moratorium The moritorium  started in March to April and has been extended to September by the Governor.  Landlord lawsuits are beginning to dominate court records.  It improbable the suit will help to return the lost income from any source than the creator...The State of California.  Where in the constitution does the State get the right to take from property owners their source of income without proper compensation?  While it is understandable of the landlords case of having investment property governmental action taking income from it our situation is quite different when the population at whole is at risk.

All income investment sources do have risks.  Dividends are cut, interest payments are missed and bankruptcy creates a loss of value in all investment.  Real Estate in our area has led a charmed life.  The cost of living has gotten out of order in our area.  The middle class and below have tried to make ends meet for years.  We have all heard and read about it.  Now it appears the corrective action is occurring.  We are not living in England in the time of Dickens!

This next shut down may end up being a very decisive period as the service industry employees will all find themselves without job and insufficient unemployment income to cover rent and daily expenses.  Move to cheaper pastures is the eventual outcome and lower rents to create affordability

As a conservative friend of mine has stated, "you elected him now suffer with him".  It is easy to blame politicians for the current situation.  They are only dealing with the deck they have been dealt.  Unfortunately the deck has had many issues for many years and now the dealer is dealing a bad hand.

I believe we will see how the deck is played in the coming months as California must take care of a $54 billion budget short fall and landlords losing not only income but value of an income property that no longer creates income.

The question I have is there statistical information that can tell me where the renter are going, where the sellers are going and who are the buyers?  The big jump in Portola Valley would indicate to me that there is the movement to safe environments with larger properties, good schools and proximity to work.  Menlo Park has finally obtained the value over Palo Alto as Menlo Park has good schools, but larger lots and price per square foot less than Palo Alto.  Woodside is an enigma.  It has an excellent school, large acreage and proximity.  Redwood City is affordability.  Atherton can bounce around in any market.

We may be seeing a major adjustment in the nature of our citizens and socio-economic nature all brought out by the virus.  Only time will tell if the trend will continue?

Anyone have a Crystal Ball?

Estate Planning and Financial Planning are essential in real estate

I had a number of declines from a seniors group who I included in the Blog mailing list.  Too many came back with a "no interest, I'm going out in a box".  Yes, that is true.  Selling a home that is highly appreciated with a low property tax is quite foolish.  Even if you need the money.  A reverse mortgage will help for tight cash strapped home owners.

The greatest fault I can lay on the male spouse is they leave their partner holding a bag of assets without any knowledge or training in how to proceed and know the market for their most valuable asset, their home.  The belief, "my children will take care of (her) him when I am gone",  is a false assumption.

It is my hope and prayer for those who do have highly appreciated real estate they have a trust.  Then when a partner and spouse pass away, the property has a step up in basis from cost to market value.  It is essential for the surviving spouse to know the market beyond that of hear say and local papers and media.  There is a general tendency of the media to over stress the positive and under stress the negative.  Of course, who will buy newspapers with negative comments and subscribe to media with the same down in the mouth remarks.

It is also important for the surviving spouse is not taken.  There is a real estate investor type that runs obituaries and calls the surviving spouse with the promise of paying all cash, as is and immediate close, no commission!  6 months later the house is on the market refurbished and remodeled for a substantially higher price.    The children of the surviving spouse are not much better.  They don't want to care for the parent and reach into their pockets when that real estate is there.  In a snap Mom or Dad is in a nursing home and 14-24 months later an obituary.

If there is anything this blog will do is to be of interesting reading to the female spouse and hopefully the male spouse.  Their knowledge of the market is up to date and current.  So when the eventful day comes the surviving spouse knows the approximate value the need to update and the value achieved by the update.

Every day I look over the recent changes in the real estate market.  The big change is lowering of list price.  The small cuts have given way to 8,9,10,11 & 20% cuts, from Menlo Park to Palo Alto to Redwood City, Portola Valley and Woodside.  These are not low priced areas either.  It is not surprising either.  California's virus cases jump, late payments of mortgages triple, Home-Mortgages delinquencies have reached their highest level since 2011.  The once Booming San Francisco Apartment market had gone into reverse with a vacancy rate of 6.2% and s drop in rent of 9.2%. Rather than stay, the option of renters has been to move.  The Exodus from the Bay Area is causing rental price drops all over the Bay Area, not just San Francisco.

It is worth being optimistic when the virus is dropping, but it is not.  The economic toll will most likely take the biggest toll on the rental market as the service industry will have no income to cover rent, car payment and daily expenses.  The only option for them is to move out of the area.  Added to that are the work from home high tech people who look at open spaces with lower costs of living.

The Office market is no better off .  The San Francisco Office Market has cooled and Startup are retrenching.  That is occuring in New York city and any of the big city markets.

The Bay Area News states that the new home building target set for the Bay Area will double in the next decade.  That is a great way to get the homeless off the streets.  But, who will pay for that.  Taxes on an already high tax rate state....more movers out to Nevada, Texas and no tax states.

So, buyers now is the time to begin looking in earnest.  There are very few homes for sale.  Those that are will be moving out of state or contractors caught with a home that at best they can break even.  Homes for sale with plans approved for a new home indicate builder do not see a profit incentive.  They are looking to break even and will give the buyer the approved plans

This is a time of price adjustment.  Just as the stock market went up to historically high levels.  This is a time of adjustment.  Too much emotion and not enough fundamental reasons for prices.

Gary

What Day Is It?

What a week it is has been.  Coming up more often is the progression that Shelter @ Home will extend itself.  When a relaxation appears imminent, then more cases occur.  Go out shopping and everyone is wearing a mask and gloves.  Fill up for gas.  It is not uncommon to see the disposal of gloves after the tank is filled.

Local media is on both sides of the street when it comes to whether there is a relaxation of rules or will there be a return to shelter in place.

For the real estate buyer or seller one needs to get a grip on the situation and look at it realistically with a focus on their long term objectives. 

Yes there will be opportunities.  Having cash in liquid form and a commitment letter from a bank is a necessity.  Having a plan is necessary

Do not become too optimistic or too pessimistic that you either put yourself in a regrettable situation or missed a golden opportunity.  I think of a sermon from our local priest about a soul is given a tour of heaven.   St. Peter takes the soul on the tour introducing ll the beauty of heaven.  They pass a locked door.  The soul asks what is behind the locked door.  St Peter reluctantly opens the door and from the door to as far as the soul can see are wrapped gifts.  The soul looks quically at St Peter.  St. Peter says those are gifts God has given mankind that were failed to be opened.  Do not let god's Gift pass you by because of fear or lack of advice.

No, the economy will not be returning to normal!  It is easy to be pulled along by the economic, political and governmental experts.  Look at the present realistically and the future positively and lean toward caution.   While city core areas are being torched and gutted and looted and the virus has a resurrection there will be opportunities. 

On a daily basis the results of the riots, work from home mandates, closing brick and mortar stores, the joy of sitting at our favorite bar or restaurant has been  taken away.  The results are evident  Wealthy buyers reportedly are in a "mad rush" to leave San Francisco.  For decades movement in and out of San Francisco has existed.  Moving out and paying dearly and moving back in and paying dearly has gone on for decade after decade.  It is only opportunity, God's Gift to be opened.  San Francisco is not the only major city to see a migration.  Manhattan's empty apartments leases plunge 62% in May!  Like San Francisco the movement out of cities have been historic.  Once the cites get control of their environment the movement back will return.  During those times of opportunity will exist for both those returning and those leaving.  It is all up the those willing to take God's gifts for their advantage.

Carrying on with the mantra the fact of movement is so strong it is becoming a common thread for the media.  Cities are crumbling all over the US, the infrastructure, the schools, the proper training of public servants all come to a point when the call is "We've Had It."

These are times of opportunity for those who have always had the desire to live in San Francisco, this is the opportunity.  There are neighborhoods that remain peaceful and safe.  To those in the city wishing to find a quiet place to live there is no better place the the Peninsula. 

FROM A DISTANCE: In light of the heightened social distancing, there is no better place or time to slow down, take a step back and enjoy to poetic beauty of the lifestyle and environment of the Peninsula.  The Western Hills offer panoramic views of the Bay and the Ocean.  There are stands of Old Growth Redwoods and the peaceful quiet of the clean air those gentle giants provide.  Even it you only want an escape from the hustle and bustle of San Francisco or Silicon Valley the Western Hills and their communities will provide a vacation home and an escape minutes away.

Present day situations do not bode well for the real estate market.  Remember this is opportunity.  Zillow will give some indications of the health of the market. 

Rentals in Los Altos has prices down over 19%.  Redwood City has a 1.9% decline which only hides a probable cuts coming.  Some 193 properties are for rent on Zillow.  7 Bayberry in Portola Valley has had a 10.72% price cut in the listing price.  986 Loma Verde in Palo Alto a 10.22% cut in the listing price.  Double digit price cuts are become very common all over Silicon Valley.

E-blasts from real estate agents to other real estate agents tell a similar story.  Selling agent gets a week in a condo in Hawaii to sell at listing price.  Another agent is offering a 3 1/2% commission, over the standard 2 1/2% commission for selling a home at list.  The flat lands in Redwood City once dominated by Google, Facebook and buyers who used company buses have seen a dramatic slow down as they all work from home and new buyers look outside the Bay area.  That is not to say homes do not sell.  Sales occur when prices are at a level buyers feel satisfied.

Remember Gary McKae when a referral from a friend or family member is looking for housing.  Negotiating in this market takes experience and knowledge.  Age does help and buyers and sellers will be given dedicated service.

Gary McKae

Three Months of Shelter in Place, How has the Real Estate Market Reacted?

After  three months of shut down, businesses closed, jobs lost and lives changed there has been a constant rhetoric of a real estate market and the economy bounding back.  Low interest rates have been a dominant source of reason to buy; along with, it will be better.

Newspapers and other media have vacillated between good times ahead and danger in the wings.  

Here is how the dominant Silicon Valley real estate markets have performed.

In general all but two have seen sales below list.   In most instances 5-6% below list.  Homes for sale have out distanced sales.  Sales and listings have been below normal.  With the next week being a time of relaxation of rules and a return to work it will be of interest to see how home buyers and sellers will react. (CLICK THE HI LIGHTED CITIES FOR GRAPHS)

In the Five County area homes for sale have risen from 11,436 in April to 16,028 in May.  Sales have declined from 9,424 in April to 8,177 in May.

In Atherton days on the market have risen from 5 in April to 23 in May.  Price to list have dropped to 95% of list.

Menlo Park days on the market dropped from 29 in April to 3 in May and Sales to list price dropped from over 101% to just over 100%.

Los Altos had a large drop in sales to list from 103% in March to 102% in April and under 98% in May.

Palo Alto had a drop in days on the market in April of 15 to 10 in May.  Sales to list jump from 100% to almost 102% in May from a high of 106% in March.

Portola Valley had a drop in days on the market in April of 57 to 11 in May. Sales price to list dropped roughly 100% in April to 95% in May.

Woodside saw days on the market drop from 161 days in April to 21 days in May with sales price to list rising from 93% to 95% of list.

Redwood City saw days on the market increase from 9 in April to 12 in May and sales to list drop from 101% in April to under 100% in May.

The willingness of sellers to take a lower price is quite positive as it indicates a top in the rapid home price increase and the afordability factor many buyers are faced with.

'It's going to be ugly,' analyst says as mortgage rates suddenly spike on shocking jobs report
What's good news for the U.S. economy is suddenly bad news for mortgage rates. A far-better-than-expected May employment report only added to a growing sell-off in the bond market, pushing bond yields to the highest level since March. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

Broker Price opinions have increased along with Appraisals as many owners are reconsidering the soundness of refinancing to 30-year mortgages.

Commodity prices are begining to increase as in the cost of food, gas prices and oil prices.  All sooner or later will become inflationary tools that will put the Federal Reserve on notice of how to save our economy and control inflation.

Rental prices have dropped in May some 16-19% depending on where you look.  San Francisco with 69% of housing as rental will be the point of contact for the future of rates.  When looking at Zillow for rentals in Redwood City it seems like there is a blanket of rentals available.  How long they remain so will all depnd on demand, price cuts and whether the move out of the area will continue.

The latest report of "new home" sales is most encouraging.  The interpretation is that it is time to look at newer homes out of the area once work from home becomes a dominant thought for the future.

Buyers are still recommended to remember you are buying something you will be living in 10, 20 or 30 years from now.  The near term price and economic swings will all even out as the 3% or so 30-year mortgage will become the greatest asset and buyer will have.

The near term issue is not attractive for Governor Newsom.  How does he handle the rent and mortgage moratorium to make lender, land lords, renters and home owners whole.  With the state some $54 billion in the red and the Federal Government debt expanding it looks bleak!

The May unemployment report does offer a sign of the end.  Part-time employees are a good and historic sign of an end of a recession.   Employers are more willing to hire part-time as labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way.  

Most economist have agreed ( not officially) that the 2020 recession will be a short one.  ( From their mouths to God's ears).  All add to reasons why buy on bad news is the best advise given.

Gary McKae

"V" Shapped Recovery?

The S&P 5000 and the NASDAQ have all bounced back into what has been referred to as a "V" shaped recovery.  The axiom is the stock market moves in anticipation of the economy.  Coming out of Shelter in Place is so unique that it is impossible to forecast a V Shaped Recovery for Silicon Valley.

We are now into our 3rd month of the Shelter in Place.  San Mateo County Board of Supervisors have extended the rental freeze on evictions and the terms to it until June 30th.  The death of an Afto-American man has created riots in various parts of America and our County.  The results have been to further toss back the retail and restaurant industry  from the virus lock down.

Rents are collapsing in Silicon Alley.  How much they will decline is a guess.  The publication linked in the previous sentence also has some 66% of those questioned willing to move from the area to lesser costly place if their jobs will allow.  Facebook has already gone that way along with Twitter, and Linked in.  I myself joined eXp Realty a cloud based realtor with some 29000 agents nationally and international as other realtors begin lay offs and close or limit operations.

Across the US short term rentals are facing consolidation as start ups and small landlords offload properties.

The most telling effect of the unemployment roles surpassing the 2010 Great Recession is the damage done to communities not expected to suffer.  According to the Country Almanac.  Atherton and East Palo Alto are now at 12.4%. Atherton is an enormous surprise as the starting price in central Atherton is $8 million and more.  Everyone of the 11 industry sectors lost jobs.

When looking at rentals for Redwood City on Zillow the amount is 177.  On the multiple listing service there are 14.  On "Hotpads" there are 61.  5 rentals closed in May in Redwood City.  Trouble ahead in Redwood City?  One day ago the SF chronicle stated "Rents Plunge".  With people moving out, social media workers able to work from home and Facebook employees ranking some 60% wanting to move out of the area, it makes sense to see rental prices plunge  The question is how long? To add to the rental plunge CNBC has put in their comments on the rest of the United States.

Realtor.com says Home Buying activity may heat up fast.  Interest rates are at all time lows.  If the credit score is there and the 20% down payment is there homes can be gotten.

What is obvious is that Cheaper Cities will gain from "Work at home" now to consider how to make lemonade out of the lemons.

Near term outlook: home prices will soften with rental prices declining.  When mom and pop landlords tire of subsidizing rents for unemployed tenants the "For Sale" sign will go up.

Begin to look at offering prices, and watch for price cuts, expired listings and withdrawals.  They will be your best gauge  to get value for your purchase.  For sellers, don't look for a pop.  The highs and opportunities are gone, today is today, not yesterday.  Look at the price of a recent comparative sale and price it 10% under the comp.  Take your profits sit back and wait for opportunity to follow.  It may take 5 years for that to occur.  If you don't have the patience to wait.  Begin to look to cheaper cities.  Cheaper cities will stand to gain from our restructuring,    The proof will be seen in the New Housing Starts.  They are improving and increasing  the Hoauing stock at or near at highs should be enough proof that relocation is in order.  As people look to relocate many would rent before they buy.  This is an opportunity for a 1031 exchange.

The next 6 months to a year will be trying.  Riots in the streets, COVID 19 may come back with the rioters, help  Chinese land owners maybe wise to liquidate and move their money back home.
Hong Kong tensions will add risk to the world economy.  That adds up to opportunity and being prepared to act.

Within the next week the numbers will be ready for new listings, pending and sold.  The market direction cold begin to show signs of direction.  Look out for reoccurrence of the pandemic from marches and improper contact.  The participation looks to be 18-50 and that represents 50% of the infection reports.  Close extended contact is the greatest risk for the virus to transfer.


Regards to all and stay healthy

Gary

Happy memorial Day...How will the next week and month progress?

3rd Month of Shelter in Place

Real Estate is an Asset Class.  As an asset class it has value from appreciation and income.  It has value as a store of value.  It has an important attribute no other asset has.  It has security in shelter.

When any asset is looked at it has a value for 1. SHORT TERM, 2. INTERMEDIATE TERM, 3 LONG TERM.  The ownership of Real Estate is for investors looking for income and appreciation, investors looking for Store of Value.  The majority of real estate owners are for residential purposes.  Not rental properties but for a home to raise family enjoy grand children and spend their later years together.

It is for the later I write this Blog. 

It is so easy for either Buyer or Seller to be frightened by commentaries in the media.  For example Zero Hedge wrote "Somebody is Dumping Everything"  Mystery Investor Pukes $333M in Real Estate ETF in Dark Pool Trade.  Key word is INVESTOR.  Does that really mean anything for a personal home.  Does it affect having a family BBQ for Memorial Day.  Does it affect the newly weds moving into a home to start their lives together...NO!!!

When one looks at a residential property it must be viewed for the near term (<5 years), intermediate term (5-10 years), and long term.( 10-30 years plus)  That applies to seller and buyer.

To the buyer is this the neighborhood they will live in for the long term.  Or it is something they will own until their family grows and a larger home is needed.  Or is it for the short term as the job may be only one of several stopping points in the challenges ahead.

To the seller is it the home they have outgrown.  Is it the home that they must leave for career movement? Is it the home they can no longer care for.

SHORT TERM:

The housing market is recovering slowly in Silicon Valley.  Tech companies dominate and have expanded their foot print.   Foot prints that have expanded housing prices and cost of livings. 

That foot print may get smaller.  Shelter in Place has expanded the use of virtual meeting, tours and conversations.  Technology has helped in creating an environment that will allow employees to work from home.

Mark Zuckerberg has said Facebook employees are moving out of Silicon Valley.  He predict 50% of their workforce will work remotely in next 10 years.  Currently 95% are working remotely.  Some 65-75% of the workforce of Facebook have said they would move from the Bay area.  Following suit with Facebook in remote work places is Sales Force, Twitter, Square and Shopify.

A new Pandemic Study by Cleaver Real Estate among sellers, buyers, renters gave a sense of their feelings as this lockdown enters it third month.  Worry and concern are having a bitter impact on feelings.  That is the sense of recession over a recovery.  Leaning the feelings more in recession is the feeling of living costs without income or limited income; is having an impact on daily life. 

For those buyers and sellers the short term is a better place of opportunity than the medium or long term.  For the seller the price of listings have been declining, home prices from list have been declining.  The declines are not universal.  Many homes sell at or near list. They are priced correctly to the market.  Pricing a home for sale is most important.  Trying for the top is a waste of time.  It will only lead to lower prices, greater days on the market, greater skepticism with longer days on the market with more price cuts until sold at a lower price than could have it priced properly.

This is the start of a buyer's market.  Look at those homes that have had price cuts and look to make an offer.  Look at homes priced below the market and look to a price you would pay no more than and put in an offer.

MEDIUM TERM:

The marketplace will adjust as the concept of remote workplace becomes more accepted.  The size of a home will increase as the office is now the home and the need of a secure place without family interference and workplace interference with the family. 

The large parcels of land that have been built as office places will need to be reconfigured.  The apartment complexes either built or in stage of being built will need a new face in their future.

As old business models leave new business models will develop.  With new models the cycle will return and homes will have a new face, a new interior and new functions for family and employees.

LONG TERM:

Silicon Valley has long been the area of growth due to its financial ability to create new businesses and the educational forces that help incubate those new ideas.  Neighborhoods will change and so will schools and business centers.  We are becoming adaptable.  Shopping is easier online than in stores.  Social discourse is as easy on Zoom or anyone of the other medias that are in place. 

We now look forward to the week ahead to see if the termination and phase out of shelter in place will work, or will we return and face more uncertainties.

The future will have to deal with the virus and future of another virus and how to deal with it. 

To date,  California reported 88,107 case of coronavirus with 3592 deaths and 13.499 recoveries.  Death by age is the most telling story.  In the US, 33% of the deaths we age 85 and older. 27% were 75-84, 21% were 65-74.  That would mean retirement homes and senior facilities were the most active areas for deaths from the virus.  California counties to our east who sport +55 senior communities have had the lowest numbers in fatalities either in cases or deaths.  During the pandemic more died in individually of Cancer and Heart disease.  The Pandemic has taken 3rd place but 100 % of our economy.  That does not make sense!  Long term we must adjust public health to focusing on targets and most susceptible for treatment and prevention at a minimal cost to the economy as a whole

Gary

When You Have Lemons, Make Lemonade

I thank all of those who have complimented me and encouraged me on the posting for McKae Properties Silicon Valley Market Commentary.  It is encouraging to know that it is appreciated and encouraged.

WOW, what a week!   Listings falling, prices being reduced and terms being adjusted.  All this in the face of a Shelter in Place that has been most challenging.  From Face masks to booties, to gloves and hand sanitizers just for a starter.  Then there are the new forms that the California Association of Realtors have included in the listing, visitation, marketing and sale and closing.  To add to the frustration of both sellers, buyers and agents, the new conditions eliminate brochures, open houses and brokers tours.  These are to be replaced with virtual tours to be added to the Multiple Listing Service and a requirement that final or first viewing of the property must be done with a firm desire to purchase the property listed.  In other words, no more Lookie Lews.  Visitations will require buyers to have viewed the property via a virtual tour, reviewed all the disclosures and provided proof of funds and a commitment letter the lender.  When viewing a property only two people are allowed in, the property must be vacant, buyers and agent must wear a face mask, gloves, booties.  Of course, Social Distancing is a must!  Virtual Staging is now a common practice.  Owners are being asked to open all doors, and drawers so that the buyers do not have to handle them to view closets, cabinets and rooms.

Still, properties are selling.  Many have seen price cuts to get interest in the property.  On a national level listings have declined some 29% of the total supply and homes for sale down some 19%.  Homeowners are dropping prices as the coronavirus chokes the economy.  Depending on the severity of the Lock Down prices have cut from 5-10% on average to areas where the lock down is most severe a 20%- 34% cut has not been uncommon.  On the bright side areas that have had loose lock downs; such as, Sacramento where a 3% cut has been most common.

The next shoe to drop will be in July as the U.S. Economy will react to the relaxation and or elimination of the lock down.  Of course, this is all dependent on how we all react to coming back to moving forward. So much damage has been done it is hard to envision a snap back to the way things were in January and February 2020. 

The lack of income for Doctors, Dentists, Restaurants, Barbers, Hair & Beauty Salons  and most of the "brick and mortar" retail businesses has put tremendous pressure on survival.  With their survival in question the empty store-fronts, empty small offices will be a signal of our resilience and ability to snap back. 

The action of many Silicon Valley Employers to help in lock downs has put many residents in a work at home mode.  To those who can come back to work, the work place will be completely different.  Plastic shields between workplaces, body temperatures at the entrance door, hand washing, social distancing will all wreak havoc on an environment that has prospered on the ability of workers to create ideas and the ingenuity that has made Silicon Valley so profitable and successful.  Will Facetime, Zoom, Meet, Facebook be able to keep the ingenuity and progressive ideas for a better economy and society possible.  Coming to a consensus on that is like listening to forecasters in the stock market's future direction. 

The work at home will have many casualties.  Many are re-evaluating whether to stay in a high priced small rentals to working from home in a lower priced locale.  2019 had already seen and movement out of our area.  Will 2020 see that movement increase.   Will the movement become a wave or a tidal wave?  $2650 one bedroom rental in South San Francisco can easily be transformed into a 3000 square foot home in El Dorado Hills.  The addition of a move to Nevada or Texas will add to the savings and reduction in cost of living when State taxes are eliminated.  It cannot be ignored that an increase in both income tax rates and sales taxes will not occur when one considers the $54 billion deficit in California and deficit the counties and cities and towns face.  Counties who rely on revenue sharing and sales taxes have already viewed the probability of increasing income.  Some Counties, Towns and Cities are considering selling excess land on their balance sheets.  Sell to Whom, I ask?  There are already developers and builders questioning who will rent their project under construction.

Renters and homeowners are already facing the ability to pay rent and make mortgage payments.  Forbearance programs are being established to help home owners, but the forbearance does not help mortgage servicing companies.  Mortgage servicing companies are not the banks who granted the loans.  They are non-banks who have a very profitable business of collecting mortgage payments and making payments to the end owners of the mortgages.  They must still make payments when the homeowner is unable to make his payment and request forbearance.  How long will they be able to handle the negative cash flow?  To matters worse is that 49% of mortgages that have been created are by Non-Bank Banks.  The servicing company can only go back to the creator of the mortgage to claim the lender was not properly screened.  The Non-Banks then just close their doors.  The only recourse is foreclosure.  Does this sound familiar.  2009 is Deja Vu All Over Again, right Yogi?

A client of mine, who just canceled her listing to update and make the property more saleable while the lock down is in force, said to me, " I am worried about the economy Mr. McKae.  But I am not worried about the US .  We have talented sons and daughters who will create the future as we and our parents created their future".

From Lemons You Make Lemonade.  For every person who sells their property they will buy elsewhere where prices are lower and cost of living is lower.  In the Stock Market we called that "Same Day Substitution".  Does it really matter if the seller gets a little less to buy a great deal less elsewhere?  The buyers will be able to get discounted property that will increase in value.  It is a Win Win situation.

Property will increase in value because we have inflation in front of us.  The best way to fight inflation is real estate!  The only risk in real estate is LIQUIDITY!  Buy a home you and your family will live in for the future.

We will see a transition that will create opportunities.  The landlord who does not want to have non-paying tenants will sell and look elsewhere for income property.   That property will come on the market.  Work at home will have property facing the "same day substitution" rule.  Then there is the ugly head of foreclosure.  Look at where we were in 2009 and what we became in 2019!

Interest rates are low and payments at lower interest rates is far more attractive than saving on purchase price.  The inflation previously written about will come from commodities.  Hogs are being slaughtered due to slaughter house closings.  Cattle are put out to pasture and the cost of carry will increase.  When the slaughter houses open pigs will be needed.  Competition will find higher prices to meat processors and find their way to the dinner table.  When  pork prices go up so will all meat prices. 

Internationally things are a bunch of lemons.  It is not only Trump banging the China Drum.  The Pandemic all comes back to Wuhan and a suspicious lab in Wuhan.  New Zealand and Australia have blamed China for the pandemic.  African nations have joined in and so has Europe.  Japan has set up a $ multi billion fund for Japanese manufactures to bring plants from China back to Japan.  Taiwan Semi Conductor is moving a plant to the U.S.  Sooner or later that will happened for U.S businesses in China.  What is China's recourse....They won't buy our food products?   What will their people eat?  China uses others technology and ingenuity to build their economy, they cannot improve only copy.  China has more to worry about than food, it is employing the masses.  Unemployed and out of work is not something that the populace will endure.  Isn't there an old Chineses curse of may you lie in a changing world?

The United States was built on immigrants who came here for a better way of life to operate in freedom and being allowed to be successful.  DONT SELL SHORT AMERICA!

Collect those lemons get ready to make lemonade to sell when the time is right.  Do your research, plan your purchases, do not forget to think about "What if"  Also, dont; forget about your friendly realtor Gary McKae to help you sell or buy your home and refer him to your friends and family.

Until next week

Gary