Spring Season Starts with a Stumble

 This week has started with 5 transactions falling through, 4 listings back on the market, and 11 price cuts, 73 new listings, 9 contingent and 58 pending, with 57 sold.

"Going Back Home" is the swan call of the renters moving.  "Working from home and having every room rented to cover costs is not why we came to the Bay Area."  

Within the next several months we will witness the results of unpaid rent and unpaid mortgages.  I do not have much faith in a solution. The subsidy programs are already finding it difficult to pay landlords.  Landlords who have been unable to finance the deficits will need to consider their losses, eat them or sell!

eXp Realty is training agents for the possible oncoming foreclosure action and bank sale of REO, (real estate owned).  Becoming "certified" is a return to 2007-2011 when we had the last foreclosure boom.  Short sales and foreclosure sales were once the main source of buying properties from speculators to cost conscious buyers.  

In addition to the REO training, eXp is training agents in "Relocation".  After the Financial Crisis, Silicon Valley became a migration center for corporate employees.  I could count on 4 or more assignments in a year of executives moving to the Bay Area.  From the training program under way it has more of the semblance of movements out of the Bay Area.

Where is the main relocation? A new poll says Nevada.  Another poll has Hawaii, Virgina, Colorado and Nevada in the top 4 well above California.  I lived in Honolulu for 13 years and agree with the Top Location of Hawaii.   So is my wife thinking....are we too old to surf?Another poll has Hawaii, Virgina, Colorado and Nevada in the top 4 well above California

But what about moving within California?  The Top 20 for SFGATE in the US have Vallejo, Yuba City, Santa Cruz, Stockton and Eureka in the Top 20.  I can understand the demand.  The most expensive is Santa Cruz of $1,222,000 to Modesto of $499,000 with the others mentioned in the Modesto price range.

If you are looking for something within the state and close to the Bay, look at El Dorado Hills, Loomis and Granite Bay.  I just closed on a  6 bedroom, 5 bath recent construction home on 2.5 acres in Loomis for a little over $2 million.  2 to 2.5 hours from Menlo Park keeps the tether rope not too long.  Then it is a 2-3 hour drive to Tahoe.  The best of all worlds with the Folsom Conservation area for water sports and hiking...horse back riding is a definite YES!  The small town feel is so refreshing!  Take ride and tour the area.  Then call me, my team has just added an agent to represent my clients in the area.

April Review of Real Estate Market

There seems to be an over abundance of real estate news from hot markets to cold markets to falling rents and pre-foreclosure risks.  Rather than using the Media reports. I have decided to go to the source.  The Multiple Listing Service has reports for every week and month going back in time.  The MLS has reports that give a view of the markets by price range and an analysis of what buyers and sellers are most interested in.  So let's go forward

The "Five Counties New vs Sold" is the first stop on our travel through the real estate marketplace. From March 2020 to March 2021 there were 26,974 "new listing" and 21,891 "sales".  On average it took 22 days to sell.  The average price was $1,022,661.  The total sales for the "Five County Area" was $22,375,718,789.  That was up from $16,239,021,898.

In San Mateo County the Days on the Market (DOM) for March were 18  The price to list was 107%. The average sales price for San Mateo County was $2,311,630 versus $2,294,675 in February.  The total sales for March was $973,196,236.  That was up from February of $658,571,772.

In Santa Clara County the DOM was 16 with sales to list of 108.8%.  The average Sales price was $1,909,259 versus $1,802,292 in February.  The total Sales Volume was $1,853,890,494.  That was up from February of $1,081,383,326.

In San Francisco County the DOM was 23 and the Sale to List price was 112.3%.  The average Sales Price for March was $2,240,548 versus February of $2,258,735.  Total Sales for MArch 2021 was $584,782,967.

In Alameda County the DOM was 13 and Sales to List Price was 113.7%.  The Average Sales Price was $1,253,350 versus February of $1,197,1129.  The Total Sales Volume for March was $1,227,029,432 up from February of $764,965,508.

#5,  Contra Costa County had DOM of 14 and Sales to List Price of 108.5%.  The Average Sales Price for March was $1,145,240 versus February of $1,050,648.  The total Sales Volume for Contra Costa County was $1,172,726,253.

Clearly it was a Strong Month of March in the 5-County Bay Area; irrespective of, what the Media wrote!

Now let's look at the two counties that in state movement occured.  Placer County for Granite Bay and Loomis and El Dorado for El Dorado Hills.

Placer County DOM was 18 and Sales to List was 102.9%.  The Average Sales Price for Placer County was $690,420 versus $669,960 for February.  The Sales Volume for March was $364,736,339 versus $237,835,703.

 El Dorado county DOM was 21 and Sales to List Price was 102.5%.  The Average Price of a Home in El Dorado County was $712,672 versus $622,644 in February.  The total Sale Volume was $180,306,082 in March versus $120,170,304 in February.

The Bay Area real Estate Market is STRONG.  Prices are rising, Days on the Market are short and Price to List is over 100%.  The migration out of the Bay could be attributed to the counties mentioned by the Media as immigration cities.  They too have rising sales prices, short days on the market and sales to list of over 100%.

I am reminded of an old Wall Street saying...The Market Crawls a Wall of Worry. Buy high and sell higher.

Gary McKae